There was a big tornado outbreak on Mar. 1. Moisture was good and the dynamics were more than sufficient with the only thing preventing a bigger tornado outbreak was the convection to the south which resulted in a more concentrated tornado outbreak rather than a larger more spread out one, and also, the separation of the better low-level kinematic fields from the better instability in the north.
The pattern since then has been docile. Large flat zonal ridge over the U.S. Because of that, I do not believe there will be any MAJOR severe wx outbreaks for the rest of March. REVISION 11:49 AM PDT Mar 16... the 12Z GFS is particularly ominous for an outbreak in about a week. This one is a tough one to forecast since there could be a potential for the disturbance to cut off at a very early stage of the game, which will cut down the severe chances. Right now am leaning on a minor severe wx event, and go more bullish as time goes by if it warrants. The overall synoptic scale looks pretty good actually with an ejection of a trough over the NE giving way to the Pacific jet. So of course it deserves watch...I may have overlooked it yesterday night when I posted this entry.
I think the next big severe wx event(s) will come when we get the next major "reloading period", the time when we get some time of sufficiently long lasting cold intrusion. The current pattern is downright terrible for any type of severe wx, if this was in May or June, and could in fact be one of those severe season enders since cool snaps are pretty difficult to get in June. So definitely, better now than later. Research from some renouned long-range experts do suggest that the NAO would switch to negative sometime in April. The long range progs also suggest that the Pacific jet should be somewhat above normal in terms of strength. In this case, the PJ is NOT GOOD if it keeps things zonal. We're gonna need some type of minor amplification, outside of the major amplification, the block over the Aleutians that's causing the backup and resultant stale pattern.
I still think a big outbreak is very possible during April, especially early April (in fact, with the polar vortex over the Pole and dropping energies down, along with a fairly zonal Pacific, prelim indications are this could be significant -- if it materializes). Looking at the really long range, right now it seems the Aleutian block could remain for reappear frequently given the tropical influences (the Nina). Since wavelengths do shorten in the summer, what effects that could have is still uncertain to me right now.
