Long-awaited update: 3 significant events including possibly a massive outbreak to come April 10-17

Sorry I have not updated this; been busy.

Regarding the last event in the previous blog, March 28 there was a big outbreak across the Plains. The second system failed to amplify significantly but spawned a big severe wx outbreak with minimal tornado activity on April 3.

If I had time to post, I would've said that there looked to be potential. Now it looks even more likely. Strong 150 kt Pacific Jet (PJ) is coming in. Reloading with record low temperatures across the east and snow all the way down to TX (in April!). Indeed, powerful polar vortex (PV) is right now parked over the Eastern 2/3 of the country. As the PJ moves in, it will kick the PV out, reasserting it near the North Pole. Pacific air will flood the country as several disturbances within the flow amplify over the Intermountain West.

The first threat looks to be from the 10th to the 11th. This one will be a phase of a piece of the PV and an impulse riding along the Pacific Jet. Right now, a lead disturbance that goes through in the morning is the question mark. Will it be weak enough to not cause too much an effect for the bigger stuff in the afternoon? Nevertheless, given my analysis of previous events, the fact that moisture might be limited will not allow this to be a historic outbreak, IMO.

Next threat: 13th thru 15th. This one could be the biggest depending on the third system (see belwo). Another disturbance will come in via the Pacific Jet Highway. This time there could be more moisture to work with. Details are sketchy right now, since it's a week away, but dynamics look incredible (just as they will for the first system), but there will be more moisture to work with - latest GFS paints 65° to 70°F dewpoints all the way north to Memphis, TN. Caveat may be if the first system doesn't move out quickly enough.

Final threat before I think things calm down again: 15th thru 18th. This one is a question mark. The full force of the PJ rolls in this time, so this certainly has the most potential with regards to dynamics. But the instability is the question mark. It looks like this might be the signal of another pattern change as the Pacific becomes extremely convoluted after this and the NAO tanks. In other words, another cold pattern for the east. (BTW, do want to remind everyone that the idea of the "reloading pattern" with the PV over Hudson Bay -- only works consistently for early season and cold season outbreaks. Not going to go further into that though). If the NAO tanks early, this system will not have moisture to work with as the second system gets caught up and trapped behind the building ridge/block. If the NAO does not tank early, or more specifically, the second system moves out of the way, this might be the biggest of the three events as it will have the full mass of the PJ helping it to amplify into a low-amplitude high-wavelength trough -- most ideal for big outbreaks. Won't get into too much detail here as well.

Most of the major global models that go to the 240 hr range - specifically the GFS, CMC, and EURO, show the progression of these three systems. So confidence is much higher than last time where I had the right idea initially but bombed it due to relying too much on the poor model performance.