February Could Start Like a Lion for Parts of the Southeastern U.S.

OK, so I go to the SPC page as I'm sorta bored. Then I see a risk area on the experimental 4-8 day outlook.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/

OK, all right, all right, I look at the GFS.

I fall out of my chair.

Downright scary setup... downright scary.

90 kt at 500mb, 60-70 kt LLJ, lack of strong arctic highs, strong southerly flow from the Caribbean. What more can I say? This has the potential to be a significant tornado outbreak for areas of southeastern AL, southern GA, and the FL Panhandle. Truly amazing setup. The question mark is instability and lapse rates, as always. However, given that the last few days have been fairly cold for the east, lapse rates could be slightly steeper than progged. Right now, I don't see much of a reason to downplay this thread except for the aforementioned condition, along with possible contamination of the warm sector by earlier convection. Of course, that is a big if, and a big reason for someone to downplay this. Nevertheless, I've seen many outbreak days the past year where the convection did not harm things as much as expected. The warm sector should be expansive, aided by strong southerly flow across the GOM. IF the lapse rates can steepen some more, I expect a loosely organized squall line along the front with supercellular activity ahead of it. IF the low strengthens more quickly than progged, a derecho could be possible, although this option seems quite unlikely to me.

I'll provide images when I get the chance later tonight or tomorrow morning.