Update on storm around 1/13

I'm not going to start a thread on Eastern yet, b/c I am still in speculation mode.

The 0Z ECM is completely flipped-flopped, so I am concerned about that. The general consensus had been so far...
1) shortwave dives into the Pacific NW
2) splits, one part goes down into SoCal, one part flies off into oblivion in Canada
3) part that goes into SoCal, slowly trudges eastward while a ridge amplifies in the Gulf of Alaska.
4) ejects out into plains positively tilted

Except now the ECM is showing the northern split to be the dominant one, and little to no part that goes down into SoCal. Given, it's one run, so am not too concerned right now.

About thermodynamics, looks like that with the strong SE ridge and positive tilted nature of this system, that we are going to see problems with lapse rates again. Low level cyclogenesis east of the Rockies seems to be weak. So those will be the problems.

Obviously, though, for January, it's not too bad. We'll see if we can muster a good event out of this.