So, like, I'm new at this Blog thing; Thoughts on the upcoming pattern

Took me long enough to start.

Anyway, all you need to know about me is that I like weather (abbreviated wx, I'll use abbreviations a lot). Specifically severe wx.

IMO there are two options for upcoming week, both interesting for me of course.

1) Severe wx outbreak in the Plains followed by cooldown and the arrival of winter conditions (finally!) for the East.

2) Cutoff low forms off SoCal. MJO wave tapping leads to a significant rain event for the American Southwest. Meanwhile, the eastern 2/3 of the country remain blowtorched.

12Z GFS ensemble members

12Z operational GFS

And finally, European

(I'm too lazy to actually post images now, but I'll see if I can later)

You can compare the scenarios I present to the what the models project. The op GFS and Euro cut off the low while many of the ensembles eject the longwave into the Plains.

FIRST OPTION:
I'll discuss the severe option first. Many significant tornado outbreaks (I'll spare you the details of my research) follow periods where there was a significant vortex over Quebec or Hudson Bay (or an eastern trough/western ridge configuration). What followed was a flattening of the jet stream, zonal flow across the CONUS (Continental U.S.) and an increase in power of the pacific jet. Then a disturbance along the Pacific jet (or a jet streak) carves out a longwave trough over the west, and voila. Many times, there was a large Southeast ridge and a progressive pattern throughout which kept things moving.

The pacific jet is there. The eastern trough/western ridge configuration is there temporarily a few days before the outbreak. The southeast ridge is there. But the progressive pattern is not -- after the longwave is carved, a blocking ridge builds in the Gulf of Alaska. Perhaps that won't be a problem, I don't know.

SECOND OPTION:
The Euro tends to have a bias in cutting off lows too quickly, so it can be discarded in this case. Froms a classic omega block and cuts of the low for presumably several days (extrapolating the 240 hr forecast). This option -- which is the upper low cutting off and spinning is SoCal, is supported by the operational GFS -- but not the GFS ensembles. This is most likely the result of either the Southeast ridge being too strong and the "kicker" behind it being too weak. OR a rex block forms and the upper low is trapped. If this materializes, the MJO could be a factor where some tropical convection is drawn up. The MJO is moving toward Phase 7 and 8 and if the timing is right, a significant rain event is possible for SoCal if the MJO can maintain its intensity.

Although it's still over a week out, the model and ensemble agreement is actually quite good.

In any situation, exciting times ahead!