First tornado-related fatalities of the year today; More thoughts on Day 10 storm

First of all, kudos to Tony at easternuswx.com for keeping tabs with today's event. I sorta forgot about it a few days ago.

3 fatalities in New Iberia, LA, sadly:

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1152 PM CST THU JAN 04 2007

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0355 PM TORNADO NEW IBERIA 30.01N 91.82W
01/04/2007 IBERIA LA BROADCAST MEDIA

*** 3 FATAL, 15 INJ *** A THIRD FATALITY HAS BEEN
REPORTED WITH THE NEW IBERIA TORNADO.


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Now onto next week's threat. As expected, the op GFS has come in line with its ensemble counterparts. Latest 0Z run of the European coming out, and it has come in line as well. And let me tell you that such good agreement 10 days out is rare!

Scenario 2 from yesterday's post is pretty much dead now, although rains still likely for SoCal next week from this system (and possible snow in NorCal). Just not going to be drenching. Won't go into details on that. A more progressive solution is looking likely. Which means a severe wx outbreak is looking increasing likely around the January 11-15 timeframe.

To be short, sweet, and right to the point, I'll start out with looking at the 500mb pattern.

Following outbreak days (centered west of the Mississippi) used:
05/04/1999
01/21/1999
03/12/2006
05/07/1993
05/04/2003
04/26/1991
04/06/2006
05/08/1988
04/02/1982
04/23/2000
06/07/1984
06/08/1974
03/13/1990
05/03/1999
06/16/1992
03/01/1997
05/08/2003
04/08/1999

Composite for above days:



Now, 500mb pattern from last night's 0Z GFS ensemble mean:



I'll let you, the reader, interpret that for yourself.

Thermodynamics are going to still be a crucial question. More on that when the time gets closer.