The first experimental medium range SVR outlook, since, June?

Yep, it's that time again. Nearing fall.

So, as the westerlies once again migrate southward, and entangle with what remains of instability from the summer, the fall season initiates. Some years are blockbusters; other, lacklusters.

This could be the first of such an event. It's Sept... yeah, I know. Climatology doesn't favor it. But it's still worth watching. An rather large polar vortex, strong for this early in the year, is situated in Hudson Bay. Such a vortex often flattens out as the Pacific jet stream asserts itself and knocks it out. Positive height anomalies are situated in the Mongolia area attm. (ref: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/%7Egadomski/HEMI500/5dayloopjap.html )

There is actually some support for a trough over the western US in about 10 days or so. Key is the subtropical ridge. Is it strong enough to stop the trough from amplifying? Will the Pacific jet be strong enough to amplify the trough progressively, or will it cut off? Ah... so many questions and so few answers; I can feel the spirit of severe rushing back within me. Enough of excessive verbage. My point is... there is something worth watching in about 10 days for a possible severe wx threat.