Prep Talk

So today, I was at our church fellowship, where our adviser gave me a one on one prep talk. It starts out with me pwning him in Connect Five, but it develops into something meaningful. I thought it was pretty cool, so I'd thought I'd paraphrase it here to the best of my ability.

My adviser starts out as always with: "Where are you in your spiritual walk?" This is always a tough question for me; personal questions are always tough cause they are always loaded with semantic traps, lol (you'll see later what I mean). But, I answer, "I could do better". Fair enough. But, obviously, this is a rather generic answer, and he sees that right away, and then proceeds to ask the question, "Are you really a Christian...Do you really trust in Jesus?"

This is where the fun part starts. He starts off with a figure. A rectangle. A foundation, rooted in God. Then, later, alongside this, he adds a different foundation. A generic church answer is well, "the world". But no. My adviser puts it blatantly: Satan. Now I get pretty surprised here. He goes on to say that materialism, worldly idolatry, greed, etc. are all products of this Satanic foundation, which contrasts with the joy, love, peace, fruit of the spirit (Galatians 5:22-23)., products of God. So he asks me, "where's your foundation?" Many people become Christians, but still have Satan as their foundation. He made an example of a disciple, who once worked with Sony, who basically gave had to move himself away, piece by piece, from this Satanic foundation.

But how to know what is the foundation? He says: look at their checkbooks. Look at how they use their time. Actions reveal character, which is rooted in either a God or Satan foundation. Does the person just use the money on him/herself or save it? Donate it to charities? And so comes the topic of decision making. He brings up this Student Leadership thing he's starting come January/February. Can't be one half Satan foundation and one half God foundation. Do or not do, it is a commitment to make. Well, I think, hmmm, this is pretty strong stuff now.

It continues. He brings up stats... and these stats are appalling. From his experience, only 50% of strong Christian junior highers remain strong in High school. Out of those who remain strong, only 25% will remain strong through college. And out of those who remain strong through college, only 10-15% will remain strong as they begin their careers. Again, the decision making process. He brings up an example of a strong Christian who, after having a baby, decided to take a break from serving God, but after a couple of years, his faith had weakened drastically. It's hard to go back up after going down. He subsequently talks about himself: his faith was wishy washy until the end of high school, but then, "by the grace of God", he changed at the end of his HS years. He remained a strong Christian, choosing his wife over other, prettier girls who were chasing him, because his wife had a strong faith.

Then he talks about the big picture. Who has the big picture? The "world" talks about planning for the future. The Christian faith looks to eternity. It's easy to make money; no need for a college education to become a millionaire. But in the end, it's all temporary. He used to watch movies every week; no longer. The pretty girls who were chasing after him; developing wrinkles and losing their figure after giving birth. The only thing that is eternal: is God. So, he asks again, who has the big picture in mind?

As always, he brings it back to how that applies to me. First thing: God created everything, so why worry about little things? Why not ask people to come to Friday night Fellowship? Second thing: what decisions am I to make? Will I be in the very large percentage of people who drop out of their faith after high school, or will I remain steadfast in what I believe in? What will be my foundation? Will I be committed to my faith? Will my faith become a Non-negotiable part of my life (i.e. regardless of how I feel or what happens, will I keep strong in my faith)? He was talking about student leaders, who say they are committed, but can't come during some weeks because "they are busy". But he himself, has all the work he does for church (talks and caring for two/three campuses of our church, CBCSD [Chinese Bible Church of San Diego]), his children, and his work, adding on to his commitment in the Student Leadership program. Who, in fact, is the busy one?

He asks again, am I really a Christian? Do I really trust in Jesus? Obviously, I couldn't answer. Those who have reached the actualization of being committed to Christ, would be able to. Three parables in the book of Matthew exist. The one he explained to me: a man goes through this piece of land, and finds a pearl. He subsequently sells all that he has to get this piece of land with the Pearl in it. Likewise, we have to give up everything we have (not literally, but more specifically our worshiping of the World), and we must trust in Jesus. [This relates to the paradigm shift found in Ephesians 4:22-24.]

Food for thought. This was a talk I believe that I needed. I've been depressed this week and all this stuff - and I've been stressing out on tests and girls too much. I need to go back down to the basics - my foundation, and go from there. This is one talk I'll need to remember in my heart, and I hope this post can serve to remind me from time to time.

A Break from the Weather Side

It seems that I have not posted here for 2 months. A lot has gone on since then. No not anything weather-related, just personally related. So this is as much of a rant as a record, and as much as a record as a "Dear Diary" conversation (but of course, that sounds so cheesy...).

To start, I began chatting with someone who had, let's say, a bit of a hot temper. Not just any hot temper, but one that exploded with murder threats. So of course, I got all tangled up in that crap in chat, but thankfully, someone blabbed and nobody was hurt.

The bigger issue, ironically, deals with girls. Ah, the bliss of young love! Ha, well, there's this sophomore girl whom I really like. Like REALLY. Since September. Well, I just said hi to her TODAY. I suck, really, I know. Well, I assume that's a pretty good record. Yay! My first interaction with a girl I like. Then there's this OTHER girl I like, and we actually talk, since I've tutored her in chem. (PSST... she finds me funny.)

Now, tying this all together.

Morning, 1st period: I get called up to the office for something about the guy who threatened to murder. Wow, seems solemn.

Lunch: went to Chess Club for the first time. (trivial stuff just thrown in here)

3rd period, AP Bio: I see the girl I REALLY like. So basically the class was doing a lab. And when I walked to ask my teacher a question (my teacher was standing right next to her), she looked me in the eye. Wow that totally made my day! So like I was whoa there... and my cheeks started turning hot and stuff. Well this guy who sits next to me knows about this, and he's with her in 4th period, and knows her well, why this is important later. Then I see this other guy who sits next to me hold her hands! WTH???? Well, I get really pissed, but no matter. My cheeks remain red and I walk into 4th period feeling like it's 100 degrees, when in fact, outside it's bone chilly cold.

During 4th period there are some girls and myself who just like to laugh and talk, and this guy comes up, I'm like saying it's hot and stuff, and he says do you have hot flashes? This sends everyone into a laughing frenzy. lol.

Then comes the interesting part. I'm a tutor in something called AP Educational Services. Well, the guy who sits next to me in AP Bio tells me that SHE is in there. I'm like WOW, and I rush in, and yep, there she is. But behind, it's my OTHER crush! So I'm like wow wow wow 2 in 1!! I had planned that my other crush would be there, though. Still, amazing and I'm like feeling in heaven. Freaking awesome. But alas, I'm there for a reason, and it is to tutor. So I do. After I get that done, the good part begins. I start talking to my "OTHER crush", helping her with Physics. The thing is though she's asking about electrostatics which I have absolutely NO recollection of. She shows me this question involving this thing and I'm like WTH is that. She LAUGHS HER BUTTS OFF. Wow that was pretty freaking amazing, I think. Afterwards a couple of girls (one of them friends with my BIG crush) ask me over to ANOTHER ROOM to help, but guess what--I'm still thinking about my 2 crushes and dang I'm like bs'ing everything. Can't think when you like two girls and you don't know if they left. I bs it, apologize BIGTIME to them, and check back, alas, my "OTHER crush" is gone.

Not my BIG crush though. Someone has been helping her. Anyways, tutoring session is beginning to end, and I felt, hey I have some homework I could go to the school library to work on. I sorta speak that to my friend next to me loudly, and RIGHT AFTER I say that, my crush asks someone, "when does the library close"?

Yep, she wants to go to the library too. WTH.

So I go, and I can't concentrate AGAIN. There's this guy who asks me for help with AP US history, can't do it. Instead I set things up for the Hi. I help him with Bio and lead him over to where my BIG crush is sitting. I help him, and well, she's talking to someone. Not until 10 min before the school library closes is she open. She moans and groans over the homework. So I go in.

My legs are quivering. What to say?

Then I arrive. I gently say, "hey, you want some help on that?" She responds no. And then she picks up her cell phone, gets up, and walks over, then picks up her stuff and leaves.

Dang.

Now, there were SO MANY clues that she likes me as well... but the library part was just too rigged. She didn't act much like she liked me while studying in the library, in fact, it seemed as if she was waiting for the Hi. She almost NEVER asks for tutoring help. And from my observations, I could swear that she and the other guy from my table know each other well enough to be bf/gf! That leaves the question - did the guy who sits next to me set it up? Did she know already? Questions, questions. Actually I've been quite conspicuous with this crush. Most everyone I know is banking that she already knew about it. But I've been saying I would say hi for 2 months now. Why did she know it was going to be today?

So, well, that ended my adventure for today. I could've added some discriptive writing, but alas, it's too late. Maybe I'll edit this post later.

What a day. If tomorrow is as interesting I might just get the guts to ask one of the girls out.

The first experimental medium range SVR outlook, since, June?

Yep, it's that time again. Nearing fall.

So, as the westerlies once again migrate southward, and entangle with what remains of instability from the summer, the fall season initiates. Some years are blockbusters; other, lacklusters.

This could be the first of such an event. It's Sept... yeah, I know. Climatology doesn't favor it. But it's still worth watching. An rather large polar vortex, strong for this early in the year, is situated in Hudson Bay. Such a vortex often flattens out as the Pacific jet stream asserts itself and knocks it out. Positive height anomalies are situated in the Mongolia area attm. (ref: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/%7Egadomski/HEMI500/5dayloopjap.html )

There is actually some support for a trough over the western US in about 10 days or so. Key is the subtropical ridge. Is it strong enough to stop the trough from amplifying? Will the Pacific jet be strong enough to amplify the trough progressively, or will it cut off? Ah... so many questions and so few answers; I can feel the spirit of severe rushing back within me. Enough of excessive verbage. My point is... there is something worth watching in about 10 days for a possible severe wx threat.

Regarding last post

Apparently, I just realized that the velocity potential/upper divergence/MJO map I posted was from July 2006. Weird, but it's only my fault that I did not take a closer look at the datestamp discrepency.

The correct map is here:

The enhacement areas are leaving the Atlantic basin right now at an initial glance, but a new burst as appeared in the eastern Pacific. Given current satellite trends, I suspect that will intensify and move eastward. When that is leaving (maybe in about a 4 days to a week), we could see some marginal quick development. But since the Azores High is in its strongest state right now, and due to strong shearing winds in the GOM, I don't foresee any major development.

Phew! What a flip-flop.

Musings on the Atlantic Hurricane Season

Key issues in this post: possible development in the next week-two weeks; effects of the negative SST anomalies in the eastern Atlantic; hot spots for landfall activity through the remainder of the season.

So far, the Atlantic has been quiet. Not abnormally quiet as it has been in the Pacific (both the west and the east), but quiet, as usually is during this time of year. I expect this to change.

Here are the current velocity potential anomalies:


Green areas indicate enhanced divergence and increased thunderstorm activity. This area of enhancement has actually stalled the past few days, likely due to what I'll explain later in this post. In fact it was about to bipass the Atlantic until TS Dalila in the EPAC, along with a divergence from strong anticyclone in the Four Corners region, reinvigorated the ITCZ in the area. Still, the signal is rather weak, continuing to be hurt by a strong Azores High in the Atlantic, and negative SST anomalies due to the developing La Nina in the EPAC.

The question now is: will the enhanced areas of divergence enter the Atlantic. What I've noticed is that tropical cyclone development usually occurs when the enhancement areas are leaving. The Azores High tends to peak in strength in late July, so it will likely weaken from here on out. In fact, a weak trough is forecasted to amplify near the Azores, which will certainly dent the high pressure cell across the area, temporarily halting the upwelling and the SAL intrusions. When the Azores High weakens, the ITCZ will start moving northward, and perhaps by that time, the areas of enhanced divergence can get settled in the eastern Atlantic.

Don't get me wrong - the CV area doesn't look healthy - it will take time for one month of upwelling to evaporate away, even with strong sun. But that does mean, with the enhancement areas leaving the western Atlantic, we could see some development in the central or western Atlantic in about two weeks. Confidence is low, however. At this point, East coast troughiness says that Texas to Central America are the main threats if something homegrown develops, or it will come close to the east coast or recurve if something develops further east.

This discussion now brings up the second point. As of right now, the Azores High has done a number on upwelling in the eastern Atlantic. This is the first time in a long time that such negative anomalies have appeared in the MDR. Given that the Azores High does weaken like it is forecasted to, the eastern Atlantic may recover in about 2-3 weeks, which indicates possible CV development later in August. But if the Azores High remains strong, and the cold pool remains there, CV storms are not likely going to form. While the current cold pool suggests CV season might start a bit later, it is uncertain what effect, if any, it will have with the number of CV storms. If the Azores High weakens in September, and the CV storms finally come rolling, they will more likely recurve.

Which brings up the third point. Where are the biggest threats for hurricanes this year? La Nina climo argues for stronger Caribbean storms. The East Coast trough will probably remain through much of the year, if so, the East Coast would be under the gun and the Gulf Coast might get a reprieve.

For now, I would say that Mexico, Central America, Hispaniola, and Cuba are under a relatively high threat, and that Texas, Puerto Rico, and the Lesser Antilles have a moderate threat (maybe a lower threat for S. America, ABC Islands and the southernmost Lesser Antilles). All of Florida and the east coast, along with Bermuda, I would say, has a moderate threat, and the Gulf Coast has a low threat. But that's just my prediction.

2007 Tornado Season: A Review (FEB-JUN)

The 2007 tornado season was a fantastic one for chasers who went early. Synoptically evident event after event. Although the mesoscale often went awry (you can't predict that stuff from way out), most chasers from March-early May were treated with many good events. But then came the "Death Ridge". There were still events in late May, and June, but they were not as numerous, and often came down to the mesoscale. Of course though, my general rule of thumb is that more things will go wrong with the mesoscale, in a given length of time, than will go right. Although two events pop out in my mind, when nearly everything went right (March 28 and April 21), there were numerous other events which everything went wrong. Nevertheless, the synoptic events are listed below:

Feb. 23-24 (Early season tornadoes in TX, Lower Miss. R. Valley tornadoes)
Feb. 28 - Mar. 1 (Early season EF4 in KS, SE Enterprise, AL Tornado outbreak)
March 28 (High Plains tornado outbreak)
April 13-14 (Mainly bust, few tornadoes in TX and Atl Coastal Plain)
April 21 (TX Panhandle tornado outbreak)
April 23-24 (Plains tornadoes, mainly bust, but Eagle Pass, TX tornado included)
May 4-5 (Greensburg tornadoes, tornado outbreak)
June 6-7 (Mainly bust, few tornadoes in WI)

Chasers also caught tornadoes on March 21, May 22-23, and then June 23 in Canada. But otherwise, that was it. However, March 28, April 21, April 23-24, and May 4-5 were epic days for chasers, with many bagging multiple tornadoes, some wedges (exception of last one with Apr 23-24). For many it was a nice reprieve of the relatively boring years of 2005-2006, although certainly not legendary like 2004, 1991, 1993, 1995, 1999 et al (that I would like to correct from my previous post).

For myself, it was a new beginning. This year was the first which I had even attempted long-range severe wx forecasts. They were quite experimental, and I really did not know what to expect. And I did fairly well. Not bragging, but for my first year at attempting this, I felt like I had grabbed onto something that was right.

My high points:
-Seeing the Feb. 23 event several weeks in advance, though I was a little early with the timing
-Seeing that April would be an active month (that was true b/c the pattern was active, even though due to mesoscale factors, the tornado count was around average)
-Correctly forecasting the early June event and the subsequent arrival of the Death Ridge

My low points:
-Seeing the March 28 outbreak from several weeks out, then rescinding my prediction, only to have it happen
-Thinking early April was going to be extremely active (turns out there was a break from April 3-12)
-Not updating the blog as much as I should've

I guess my overall grade for this year's predictions would be a B+. Long-range, that is. Could've been better w/ more updates, and maybe it was luck that helped me, so an A will never be a grade until I've done this for at least 2 or 3 years.

As it is July already, my focus will now shift toward the tropics. With the tropics, I have yet to do a significant amount of research, but I will try my best.

(P.S. Since this only includes Feb thru Jun, my horrible January forecasts do not count. This is not to vindicate myself; rather, there was not enough tornadic activity in January to justify it as part of the 2007 'tornado season'.)

The second half of "tornado season" - what will it bring?

Since the outbreak of May 4-6, it has been very quiet. The major polar vortex centers have shifted toward the Atlantic and Europe, leaving positive anomalies over the U.S. and a lackluster Pacific jet. This will likely change. I have been harping on renewed activity late this month, but that is most likely not happening on a grand scale. However a disturbance from the Pacific will dive into the CONUS and provide severe chances for the northern Plains for the next few days, with marginal moisture being the major limiting factor for an otherwise nice shortwave trough.

The bigger event should come in June. As the polar vortex centers shift back into the Pacific as Indian Ocean convection is renewed, the Pacific jet should be reasserted. The subtropical jet is still in full force and there has yet to be a full fledged subtropical block, meaning the jet will have a chance to extend into the eastern Pacific and amplify a trough. Obviously, this threat should be further north, most likely encompassing the Central and/or Northern Plains. And once again, just based on the trends this year, the Midwest should not get the brunt of severe. This idea is supported by the GFS ensembles, though the European model continues to show brutal ridging reasserting itself in early June.

As the month continues, the high should strengthen and I'd expect "summer" to truly set in around mid-June. Early June activity, IMO, will be the last gasp of Tornado Season 2007, which will go down in infamy as the biggest season in the Plains in 8 years, and comparable to the infamous seasons of 1995, 1993, and 1977. The reason for this is based on trends and the fact that the Pacific jet and Alaska vortex becomes a weaker factor closer to summer, compared to the building subtropical high.